“If I entered the UK on a five-year route, can the Government really change the rules before I qualify for settlement?”
That is the question worrying thousands of Skilled Workers, care workers and their families.
The Home Secretary’s latest evidence to the Home Affairs Committee provides some hope—but not certainty.
What did the Home Secretary say?
Appearing before the Committee on 15 September 2026, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed that the Government remains committed to introducing an “earned settlement” system.
However, she also confirmed that transitional arrangements are still being considered.
Significantly, one option could involve:
“Passporting certain cohorts through, so no change, and they still qualify at five years.”
This is potentially important.
The original earned-settlement consultation proposed applying the reforms to almost everyone who had not already secured Indefinite Leave to Remain when the new rules took effect.
The Home Secretary’s latest comments suggest that some people already in the UK may now be allowed to complete their existing five-year route.
But we must be clear: no protected group, arrival date or transitional cut-off has yet been confirmed.
Has the five-year ILR route already changed?
No.
The existing five-year settlement routes remain in force. The Government has not yet introduced Immigration Rules replacing them with a general 10-year route.
The consultation proposed:
- A standard 10-year qualifying period for most migrants
- A possible 15-year route for Skilled Workers in occupations below RQF Level 6
- Longer routes following certain immigration breaches or use of public funds
- Potential reductions for high earners and those making specified contributions
- Separate settlement requirements for some dependants
These are proposals—not current law.
Unfortunately, social media posts frequently present the proposed 10- or 15-year periods as if they have already taken effect. That is incorrect.
Could migrants already in the UK still be affected?
Yes.
The Home Secretary emphasised that an immigration application is generally considered under the rules in force when the application is made—not necessarily those in place when the applicant first entered the UK.
That means someone who entered on a five-year Skilled Worker route is not automatically guaranteed protection if the Immigration Rules change before their ILR application.
The wording of the transitional arrangements will therefore be crucial.
They could protect:
- Everyone already on a qualifying route
- People who entered before a particular date
- Those within a specified period of becoming eligible
- Particular occupations or visa categories
- Only selected cohorts meeting additional conditions
Until the final rules are published, nobody should assume which approach the Government will choose.
Who faces the greatest uncertainty?
The position is particularly important for:
- Health and Care Worker visa holders
- Care workers and other people sponsored below RQF Level 6
- Skilled Workers who arrived between 2022 and 2024
- Applicants expecting to qualify for ILR in 2027
- Dependant partners and children
- People with changes in sponsor, occupation or immigration category
- Applicants with previous overstaying or other immigration issues
Those who already hold ILR are not expected to lose their status because of these reforms. The EU Settlement Scheme and Windrush arrangements are also outside the proposed earned-settlement system.
What should applicants do now?
Do not panic—but do not ignore the issue.
Anyone approaching settlement eligibility should:
- Confirm their exact qualifying date.
- Check whether they may apply up to 28 days before completing the qualifying period.
- Review their immigration history, employment and absences.
- Prepare their supporting documents well in advance.
- Obtain advice before changing employer, occupation code or visa route.
- Monitor the final policy announcement and Statement of Changes.
Applicants should never submit prematurely or without meeting the relevant requirements. Equally, someone who is already eligible should think carefully before unnecessarily delaying an application.
When could the changes take effect?
The Government is expected to publish its final earned-settlement policy and transitional arrangements before the end of 2026. A formal Statement of Changes to the Immigration Rules is then likely to be laid in late 2026 or early 2027, with implementation potentially beginning before the first significant cohort of migrants who arrived in 2022 becomes eligible for ILR from February 2027. However, no confirmed publication date, commencement date or transitional cut-off has yet been announced.
Our assessment
The Government has not abandoned earned settlement.
However, the possibility of protecting certain existing migrants under the five-year route represents a meaningful change in tone.
For affected migrants, the most important questions remain unanswered:
Who will be protected?
What will the cut-off date be?
Will protection depend on the visa route, occupation, salary or proximity to settlement?
Until the final Immigration Rules are published, the correct message is neither “nothing will change” nor “everyone has automatically moved to a 10- or 15-year route.”
The honest answer is that the five-year route remains law today, but its protection for existing migrants after the reforms remains undecided.
What would you consider a fair transitional arrangement for people who moved to the UK relying on a five-year pathway to settlement?
This article provides general information and does not constitute legal advice. Individual cases depend on their facts and the Immigration Rules in force at the relevant time.